ZEMCH 2015 - International Conference Proceedings | Page 107
Table 4: Cash flows of the MUCB with loan 30 years and DSCRpre-tax 1.35
0
Year #
18809
Capex
Revenues
Opex
EBITDA
Dep.
EBIT
Loan Int.
EBT
Tax
Earnings
Principal
16551,9
Cash In
18809,0
Cash out
-2257,1
Cash Flow
Discounted -2257,1
cash flow
Cumulated -2257,1
DCF
DSCRpre-tax
DSCRposttax
1,29
Average
DSCRposttax
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
28
29
30
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
275,4
1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9 1441,9
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
627,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
815,0
802,8
790,4
777,4
763,7
749,5
734,5
718,8
702,3
685,0
140,2
95,6
49,0
12,2
24,6
37,6
51,2
65,5
80,5
96,2
112,7
129,9
674,8
719,3
766,0
2,9
5,9
9,0
12,3
15,7
19,3
23,1
27,0
31,2
161,9
172,6
183,8
9,3
18,7
28,6
38,9
49,8
61,2
73,1
85,6
98,8
512,8
546,7
582,2
255,6
268,0
281,0
294,6
308,9
323,9
339,6
356,1
373,4
918,2
962,7
1009,4
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1717,3
1336,7
1339,7
1342,8
1346,1
1349,5
1353,1
1356,9
1360,8
1365,0
1495,7
1506,4
1517,6
380,6
377,6
374,5
371,3
367,8
364,2
360,5
356,5
352,4
221,6
210,9
199,7
362,8
343,0
324,2
306,3
289,2
273,0
257,5
242,7
228,6
57,7
52,3
47,2
141,7
370,3 2760,6 2813,0 2860,2
-1894,3 -1551,3 -1227,1 -920,7 -631,5 -358,5 -101,0
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,36
1,35
1,35
1,35
1,34
1,34
1,34
1,33
1,21
1,20
1,19
4.3 Multivariate analysis
The last phase of the analysis is to identify how certain variables have impact on the bankability
and profitability measures of the projects. The target is to observe and evaluate the uncertainty of
some input values by creating different scenarios answering some “what-if” questions.
The selected input values are the DSCRpre-tax targets and the loan duration. Mainly because they
are related with the banks risk of lending the money: technology-based projects may result more
riskily from the borrowers’ point of view, and a longer loan duration means a higher risk exposure.
In particular, the DSCRpre-tax is observed in a range from 1.25 up to 1.55. Concerning the loan
duration, usually banking institutions don’t offer loans longer than 30 years; the loan periods selected for the sensitivity analysis are 20, 25 and 30 years.
The profitability performance measures evaluated in each scenario are the NPV, payback and IRR.
The bankability is analyzed by computing the average DSCRpost-tax that, as a rule of thumb, must
be greater or equals to 1.20. Finally, the Revenue shows the minimum income the project needs in
order to consider the project able to repay for its outstanding debts.
5. Results& Discussion
The output of the sensitivity analysis for both Green and Conventional buildings can be found
in Tables 2 and 3. The rows show the variation of the loan period; whilst the columns refer to the
different levels of DSCRpre-tax the banks ask in order to consider the project able to repay for its
outstanding debts. Each scenario is evaluated through indicators of both profitability and bankability measures.
Financial Analysis of Green Mock-Up Buildings in Tropical emerging Countries
105