Both Ayotte ’ s seat and Florida ’ s open Republican seat are hotly contested this fall , and those seats , along with a trio of seats in divided Midwestern state delegations , will determine the balance of Senate control . In Ohio , Republican freshman Sen . Rob Portman is being challenged by former Democratic Gov . Ted Strickland ; in Wisconsin Republican Sen . Ron Johnson faces off against liberal former Sen . Russ Feingold ; and in Illinois moderate Republican Sen . Mark Kirk is vulnerable to Democratic Rep . Tammy Duckworth .
In all three states , Democrats will be favored to carry the state at the presidential level but popular Republican governors have proven their electorates are open-minded , or at least volatile .
The other two states with the most closely watched Senate races at this point are Nevada , where unpopular Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid is hanging it up , and Pennsylvania , where Sen . Pat Toomey , the last Republican standing in the mid- Atlantic , is trying to prove his 1-percentage-point win in 2010 was no fluke .
Campaigns aren ’ t the only manifestation of a changing tenor in the Senate chambers . The ongoing debate about President Barack Obama ’ s nomination of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court vacancy is another . In the not-so-distant past , new justices were confirmed almost automatically .
Archconservative Antonin Scalia , the man Garland hopes to replace , was confirmed on a vote of 98-0 in a chamber narrowly held by Republicans . Five other nominees since have garnered over 75 votes , including picks of both Democratic and Republican presidents , with each total requiring ample bipartisan support .
But Reid ’ s heavy partisan hand in administering the Senate as majority leader during the first six years of Obama ’ s term , including using unprecedented parliamentary force to prevent even routine Republican floor amendments and his will to jam through confirmation of Democratic judges to lower courts , has left the chamber bitterly divided . It ’ s safe to say Garland will never be confirmed by the Senate , unless Democrats reclaim a majority in November – and that ’ s driven in part by a reaction to Reid ’ s poisoning of the chamber ’ s comity .
In years past , the kind of hardball tactics Reid pursued would not have been accepted by back-bench senators who feared facing centrist electorates back home . But with few states sending divided delegations today , that fear now rarely exists .
If the current trend persists toward single-party delegations from the states , Republicans have the slight advantage , due in part to the fact that lesser-populated states dominated by the GOP get two Senate seats just like the more urbane and denser Democratic bastions on the coasts .
Republicans hold 31 governorships , and in 2012 , Mitt Romney won 24 states even in defeat , representing 48 of a possible 100 Senate seats .
A Senate with few senators worried about ticket-splitters and a narrow margin leaning to Republican control ? That may be the next era in American politics – and this year ’ s elections will show the way . S
BRAD TODD is partner with OnMessage Inc ., a media firm providing campaign planning for Republican candidates at the state and national level .
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THESCORE | 2016 Issue 3