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refers to a very low-probability but high-impact event, which cannot typically be
assigned a probability in a risk assessment because it has never occurred, and
for which no effective preventive measure is entailable. The difference is most
clearly illustrated by the precautionary principle which seeks to reduce threat
by requiring it to be reduced to a set o f well-defined risks before an action,
project, innovation or experiment is allowed to proceed1*.
Interestingly, risk is defined in its commercial applications by Stephen
Rapaport: A profession by definition is in a conflict of interest with respect to
the risk passed on to its clients.25 Professional expertise may often be defined by
the way risk is measured or assessed. For example, in health, the expertise of
medical practitioners, food technologists, and pharmaceutical copywriters is
measured by their ability to assess risk and by their ability to give ‘safe’ advice.
A professional code of ethics is usually focused on risk assessment and
mitigation (by the professional on behalf of client, public, society, or life in
general)26.
In ‘Risk,’ Adams observes that ‘The relentless pursuit of risk reduction
has made safety an enormous industry.’27 He distinguishes between perceived
and measured risk, contending that the ‘risk thermostat’ is guided by cultural
constructions. The ‘thermostat’ is thus affected by myths about nature and
human nature (behaviour)28, and demonstrates that calculations against risk as
highly subjective and complex.
Australia China Council, Beijing
Laurens Tan
Notes
1 Wykes, A. (1964): Gambling, Aldus, London, p. 28
2 Rojek, C.: ‘The Culture o f Leisure,’ p. 2
3 Ibid, p. 2
4 Ibid, p. 3
5 Huizinga, Johan: Homo Ludens
6 Ibid, p. 13
7 Ackerman, Diamie: Deep Play , p. 4
8 Ibid p. 180
9 Rossbach, S.: Feng Shui, The Art o f Placement, Arkana, NY 1983
10 Caillois
11 Ibid
12 Webster Dictionary
13 Ackerman, Dianne: Deep Play, p. 162
14 Dr. Daniel Kahneman: The Psychology»o f Risk , U o f Sydney: RC Chambers Research
memorial lecture, Thursday July 3,2003.
15 A very specific version o f behavioral finance, prospect theory, was first advanced by
Amos Tversky and Kalineman in 1979.
16 Bothamley, J. (1993) Dictionary»o f Theories, p. 138
17 Anderson, on Epicurus in Wikipedia (Encyclopedia online) 7/7/03
18 Anderson, on Epicurus in Wikipedia (Encyclopedia online) 7/7/03
19 Wikipedia.org on "Risk"