allow for proactive and preventative approaches to organized
crime and its impact upon governance, development, and the
state.”
Once the context was established, the participants received an
outline of the specific workgroup task and a brief scenario to
begin the discussion. The scenario was based on the al Qaeda in
the Islamic Magreb (AQIM) and Ansar al Dine groups operating in the Tuareg-populated areas of northern Mali.
While initially discussing the optimal approach to defining
whether given violent groups (AQIM and Ansar al Dine) operating in Mali in 2012 were terrorist/insurgent or criminal in
motivation, the working group determined that this was not the
most important question. As the fall of the Soviet Union led to
a multipolar world in which state sponsorship of terror/insurgent groups is less common, most groups use or become criminal networks to fund their operations and attract adherents.
Therefore, the working group determined that it is more important at the analytical stage to start from Department of
Defense doctrine and use a number of tested analytic methodologies to identify other elements of these groups, including:
• Operational design
• Joint intelligence preparation of the operational environment ( JIPOE)
• Military decision making process
• Applied intelligence for irregular warfare
• Civil vulnerability assessment
• Counter-threat finance
• Social network analysis
• Geospatial analysis
Starting from the list of Internal Defense and Development
(IDAD) tasks, the working group determined that the social
networks must first be understood and/or appreciated. Then,
strategic peace keeping mission planners should apply the
following considerations to determine their potential to mitigate or support mitigation of the destabilizing effects of the
networks:
• Ensure unity of effort
• Resource the force with robust information collection and
analysis
• Identify required/existing capabilities (including those of
the host nation)
• Integrate civil-military considerations into mission planning effort
• Promote rule of law and a responsive government
• Develop/execute strategic communications plan
• Identify/address underlying causes of violence
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The working group will continue these discussions via an online
wiki-based community with weekly discussions prompted by
the PKSOI group moderator. The goal of the wiki group will be
to refine and test analytic methodologies and mitigation strategies for increasing specificity of TOC network products, as well
as identifying optimal online tools and training approaches.
The community will also meet quarterly via video conference to
finalize the agenda and tasking for PSOTEW 2017.
The ultimate goal is to develop methods tailored to a mission’s
ability to identify, analyze and investigate organized crime,
and to differentiate these networks from terrorism and insurgency, while considering the interplay of corruption in both
types of networks. These tested methodologies will determine
the appropriate responses to fill a very real gap in knowledge
and capabilities. This approach should enhance peace keeping
effectiveness.