Military Review English Edition May-June 2014 | Page 87

BOOK REVIEWS

ASIA’S CAULDRON:

The South China Sea and
the End to a Stable Pacific

Robert D. Kaplan, Random House, New York, 2014,
189 pages, $29.00

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EOGRAPHY MATTERS. IN Asia’s Cauldron:
The South China Sea and the End to a Stable
Pacific, Robert D. Kaplan uses a realist’s lens and
a historian’s nuance to remind the reader that while
globalization is a concept, geography is a fact. Kaplan
believes geography is essential to analyzing the present and predicting the near future of the South China
Sea. This region cannot be ignored because an astonishing amount of shipping passes through it. It is the
“demographic cockpit of the globe,” and there is no
balance of power. China is a giant among significantly
weaker nations.
Kaplan convincingly argues that geography
informs world views. Specifically, a nation’s relationship to three archipelagos (the Pratas, Parcels,
and Spratlys) profoundly affects its foreign policy
paradigm. Claimed by nearly everyone, these islands
present a challenge that the United States and Asian
nations will face. It is not simply about who wins
territorial claims, but it is about world order and
international norms versus military might (the Melian
dialogue comes up frequently).
The bulk of Kaplan’s work focuses on how other
nations will deal with China and its “nine-dotted
line”—the line that illustrates China’s audacious
claim to most of the South China Sea. Kaplan tours
the nations who contest China’s claim to see if they
will be able to back up their contentions with more
than rhetoric. Kaplan is at his weakest in this section,
where he tends toward overgeneralizations and assessments made largely from observing luxury shopping
malls and official functions. Still, the historical and
cultural bits are interesting. They build to Kaplan’s
assessment that no other Southeast Asian nation is
capable of contesting China.
Enter the United States, which at present stands
to defend the status quo. Yet, if China’s growth
continues, China eventually will be able to replace
the United States and determine the regional order.
MILITARY REVIEW May-June 2014

Kaplan offers two possibilities for how this transfer of
power could play out. First, if U.S. power quickly and
significantly declined in the region, the region would
“Finlandize.” By this, Kaplan means that China’s
military might and the region’s economic dependency
on China would cause other South East Asian nations
to “quietly be captured by China without the latter
needing to invade.”
Kaplan hopes for a second possibility. In this version, the United States would use its military dominance to encourage adherence to international norms.
The United States would pressure China into playing
by the rules (such as submitting its territorial disputes
to international arbitration) while simultaneously
encouraging other Southeast Asian nations to create
diplomatic agreements until their collective strength
could balance against China’s. However, Kaplan has
a realist’s skepticism of legal frameworks, and he
seems prepared to bow to the inevitable arc of history:
China will dominate the region. While the vast South
China Sea may be “a barrier to aggression,” it offers
no promise of effective U.S. influence.
This book is refreshingly clear. While the reader
may disagree with the thesis that geography constrains policy, Kaplan’s analysis is so strong that it
is at least worthy of a good rebuttal from another
perspective. Moreover, if the international relations
aspect is not enough to interest the military-minded
reader, Kaplan’s perspective on the relevance of land
forces will certainly drum up equal parts interest and
inter-service rivalry. “Europe is a landscape; East
Asia is a seascape.” Because of this incontrovertible
fact, Kaplan believes the difficulty of occupying land
means that rational nations will opt for cheaper forms
of power projection, namely sea denial. And Kaplan
believes Asian nations are nothing if not rational.
Capt. Roxanne E. Bras, U.S. Army,
Southern Pines, North Carolina

COUNTERINSURGENCY:

Exposing the Myths of the New Way of War

Douglas Porch, Cambridge University Press Cambridge, 2013, 434 pages, $27.99

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HAT DOES IT look like when a good historian
gets mad? This book offers at least one answer.
The author, Douglas Porch, is an experienced and
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