Military Review English Edition March-April 2014 | Page 51
SYRIAN CRISIS
The Chemical Weapons Attack,
Diplomatic Developments, and
Turkey’s Position
Events of 21 August 2013 in the suburbs of
Damascus, according to a U.S. intelligence
assessment, included a sarin gas attack by the
Syrian regime.30 This attack caused the death of
over 1,400 people and sparked the prospect of
a military intervention. When intervention was
being discussed in the United States, Turkish
Prime Minister Erdoğan and Foreign Minister
Davutoğlu expressed their support and called for a
comprehensive intervention directed at the regime,
rather than a limited one. In fact, Turkey had been
raising the need for a military intervention, or at
least an internationally imposed humanitarian or
no-fly zone, since the summer of 2012, following
the downing of its fighter plane and an influx of
refugees into Turkey.
Subsequent diplomatic developments, including Syria’s accession to the Chemical Weapons
Convention, have left the Turkish government
disappointed and facing the prospect of Assad
remaining in power. Comments by Turkish government officials suggest they believe the outcome
does not punish Assad, nor does it address the
humanitarian crisis.31 Ankara’s position, because
of its difference with that of the international community, has left Turkey in an isolated position in
the Middle East.32
The Turkish government’s position does
not reflect the views of the majority of Turks,
however, who oppose a military intervention in
Syria.33 The public is wary of the costs to Turkey
of such an intervention, including more refugees,
worsening border security, terrorist attacks, a
depressed economy, and declining relations with
Russia and Iran.
The outcome of the Syrian crisis, however it
eventually turns out, will have varying repercussions at the regional and international levels
depending on the actors. The conclusion of the
crisis will directly affect Syria’s neighbors because
they will have to coexist with the resulting structure. For Turkey, the most direct effect of the crisis
is the likely establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern and northeastern Syria. A
PKK safe haven there would be a direct threat to
Turkey’s security. In addition, Turkey may be left
with al-Qaida-affiliated or similar militant groups
on its longest border. Finally, there are greater
global dangers, involving such groups’ potential
acquisition of dangerous weapons, which will have
consequences far beyond the Middle East. MR
NOTES
1. “Syria Regional Refugee Response: Demographic Data of Registered Population,” The United Nations Refugee Agency, 4 February 2014, found at .
2. “The War for Syria: Jihadists on the Way,” The Economist, 4 August 2012,
found at .
3. Paul D. Shinkman, “Patriots in Turkey Ready to Repel Syrian Attack by
Weekend, Officials Say,” 23 January 2013, U.S. News & World Report, found at
.
4. “Iran’dan Patriot Yorumu: Provokatif bir eylem” [Patriot Comment from Iran: A
Provocative Act], Cnnturk.com, 17 December 2012, found at .
5. Orhan Kemal Cengiz, “Suriye için özeleştiri zamanı” [Time for self-criticism on
Syria], Radikal.com.tr, 17 May 2013, found at .
6. “Suriye Yol Haritasi: Çıkmaz Sokakta Yürüyüș” [Syria Roadmap: A Walk on a
Dead-end Street], Hurriyet.com, 27 July 2012, found at .
7. According to the Central Intelligence Agency’s World Factbook, the estimated
numbers of Kurds in each of these countries are—Turkey, 14 million; Iran, 8 million;
Syria, 2.5 to 3 million; Iraq: 6.5 million. See .
8. “Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani says Kurds have the right for selfdetermination,” KurdNet, 20 February 2012, found at .
9. “Suriye Kürtleri ve Olası Senaryolar” [Syrian Kurds and Possible Outcomes],
Haksoz.com, 27 July 2012, found at .
10. “Suriyeli Kürtlerden Sürpriz!” [A Surprise from Syrian Kurds!], Milliyet.
com, 24 July 2012, found at .
11. “Syrian Kurdish official: now Kurds are in charge of their fate,” Rudaw English,
MILITARY REVIEW
March-April 2014
27 July 2012, found at .
12. “Barzani unites Syrian Kurds against Assad,” Al-Monitor, 13 July 2012, found at
.
13. “Liberated Kurdish cities in Syria move into next phase,” Rudaw English, 25
July 2012, found at .
14. “İște Suriye’deki Kürt Ordusu!” [Here is the Kurdish Army in Syria!], Milliyet.
com, 26 July 2012,