Military Review English Edition March-April 2014 | Page 45

SYRIAN CRISIS From Turkey’s point of view, the crisis now poses four direct threats to its security. First, there is the issue of border security, particularly since clashes between anti-Assad forces and Assad regime forces have spilled over into the border region where approximately 600,000 refugees are located. Border violations have brought Turkey and Syria to the brink of war, while Turkey’s stationing of Patriot missiles near the Turkish-Syrian border has upset its already-tense relations with Iran and Russia. Turkey suffered one large terrorist incident related to the crisis in Syria—car bomb attacks in Reyhanli in 2013—resulting in the death of over 50 Turks. Second, the prospect that Kurds in northern Syria will gain some kind of autonomous status raises concern that Turkey’s 14 million Kurds will feel emboldened to renew a push for an autonomous region. Third, there is concern that the northern part of Syria could become a base for the separatist rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (known as the PKK), which Turkey is engaged with in precarious peace negotiations after fighting for almost 30 years. Fourth, there is the global threat from al-Qaida (or like-minded militant radical Islamist groups) settling in Syria, which has already begun.2 For Turkey, this means becoming neighbors with al-Qaida-linked groups and possibly becoming a transit point for Islamic militants going to join the jihad in Syria. Going Regional: The Jet Crisis and Activation of NATO When the Syrian crisis first erupted, Turkey used dialogue and tried to persuade the Assad regime to stop the violence. As the violence continued, Turkey changed its stance completely, harshly criticizing Assad and calling on him to step down. Turkey eventually became party to the conflict by becoming a base of support and refuge for anti-Assad forces. It sheltered members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and military defectors fighting the Syrian forces. Consequently, Turkish-Syrian relations quickly took a turn for the worse. The crisis became regional on 22 June 2012, when Syria downed an unarmed Turkish RF-4 (an F-4 Phantom) military jet, which crashed into the Mediterranean Sea (see map in figure 1). Following the incident, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan declared this a hostile act and announced that Turkey now considered Syria a clear and present TURKEY INTERNATIONAL WATERS Jet crashes into sea Jet shot SYRIA Figure 1 Map of where the Turkish jet was shot and crashed MILITARY REVIEW 5