Military Review English Edition March-April 2014 | Page 44

The Syrian Crisis from
a Neighbor’s Perspective
View from Turkey
Karen Kaya

W

HAT STARTED OUT as internal turmoil in Syria in March 2011 turned into a
regional crisis, which then turned into an international crisis. The crisis in Syria is
now affecting the surrounding region, most critically Syria’s neighbors, who have all had
to contend with instability at their borders. The humanitarian dimension alone directly affects Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt, who, as of February 2014, were hosting
nearly 2.5 million refugees.1 However, even greater long-term repercussions could include
reshaping of the entire Middle East. The crisis has deepened divisions in the region along
Sunni and Shiite lines. Moreover, the Kurds are planting the seeds for an autonomous
Kurdish region adjacent to the one in Iraq, causing strategic and security concerns for all
neighboring countries. At the global level, the greatest risks are that Syria could become a
breeding ground for Islamic militants, and those militant groups such as al-Qaida or Hezbollah could obtain and use Bashar al-Assad’s biological and chemical weapons.
Karen Kaya is a Middle East and Turkey analyst for the Foreign Military Studies Office, an open-source research
organization of the U.S. Army. She holds an M.A. from Brandeis University and was a 2012 national security
fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, D.C.

(AP photo)