Military Review English Edition January-February 2015 | Page 29

PREPARING FOR UNCERTAINTY

of these time-honored luminaries of military theory
can shed light on an element of warfare that the Army
must confront as it prepares for current and future
challenges: uncertainty.

The Realm of Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a factor in everything military
forces must do as the executors of national will. The
effects of uncertainty—fear, confusion, and friction—
are particularly evident in combat. Our strategic,
operational, and tactical leaders recognize the pervasive presence of uncertainty. They acknowledge that
war always has existed within its sphere, as expressed
in the familiar words of Clausewitz: “War is the realm
of uncertainty; three-quarters of the factors on which
action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater
or lesser uncertainty.”1
Army leaders know they must prepare forces to face
uncertainty across the range of military operations. This
article discusses how to accomplish this preparation so
that Army forces will be able to prevail in armed conflict.
Preparation for combat must include rigorous education
and self-development, combined with training soldiers
to achieve unmatched lethality at the unit level.
Thucydides’ tome on the Peloponnesian War does
not discuss uncertainty explicitly. However, the concept
is woven throughout the work: in the unforeseen death
of Pericles by plague and the changed character of the
Athenian regime evident in the Melian Dialogue and the
Sicily expedition, for example.2
In On War, Clausewitz is more explicit in his treatment of uncertainty. In discussing the human nature of
war, he writes, “Although our intellect always longs for
clarity and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty
fascinating.”3 Throughout his text, Clausewitz shows that
war is the most uncertain of human endeavors.4 In many
ways, recent discussions concerning complexity in military operations could be considered discussions of the
fog, friction, and chance inherent in war.5 Put another
way, the idea of complexity is a way to acknowledge the
uncertainty inherent in any human activity, and war is
the most dangerous and violent activity possible.
War is the most dangerous human activity
not only because it involves life and deat