Journal on Policy and Complex Systems
and human choice are still relevant , both theoretically and empirically , as the immolation of a Tunisian fruit seller set off a wave of Arab Spring revolutions across the Middle East in countries where the structural preconditions for domestic instability existed ( Kugler et al ., 2015 ).
The world is facing a wide range of complex and dynamic problems in the public and private arenas alike . System dynamics discipline is an approach to explain dynamic , long-term problems , including policy analysis and design . It applies to dynamic problems arising in complex social , managerial , economic , or ecological systems , or any dynamic systems characterized by interdependence , mutual interaction , information feedback , and circular causality . Since the turn of the twentieth century , social scientists have identified dynamic linkages between economic development , social change , and political development with popularized arguments for and against modernization ( Huntington , 1996 ; Sachs , 2005 ). Revolutions , international terrorism with economic development ( Barnett & Finnemore , 2004 ), instability via globalization ( Rodrik , 1997 ), modernization ’ s “ clash of civilizations ” ( Huntington , 1997 ), the interlocks between politics and economics and the interdisciplinary human development perspective ( Inglehart & Welzel , 2005 ) are some examples . Across all , positive feedback mechanisms shift seemingly stable system phenomena toward complexity and catastrophic , far-from-equilibria conditions ( Arthur , 1994a , 1994b ). Such events force our current scientific understanding to change perhaps radically , considering new possibilities and outcomes that integrate explanations across previously disparate fields .
Rooted in international political economy , POFED is a qualitative , trans-disciplinary approach to understanding development through the lens of interdependent economic , demographic , and political forces at multiple scales , from individuals to institutions and society as a whole . In this paper , we extend previous work by Abdollahian et al .’ s ( 2010 ) systems dynamics representation of POFED at the society level toward integrated macro – micro scales in an agent-based framework . As macroscopic structures emerging from microscopic events lead to entrainment and modification of both , co-evolutionary processes are created over time . We posit a new approach where agency matters : individual game interactions , strategy decisions , and outcome histories determine an individual ’ s experience . These microlevel decisions are constrained or incentivized by the changing macroeconomic , demographic pattern , social and political environment via POFED theory , conditions on individual attributes at any particular time . Emergent behavior results from individuals ’ current feasible choice set , conditioned upon macro environment . Conversely , progress on economic development , the level of political instability , and population structure emerge from individuals ’ behavior interactions .
In order to create a robust techno-social simulation ( Vespignani , 2009 ) platform , we first instantiate a system of equations that capture the core logic of POFED macro-social theory . Following the Abdollahian et al . ( 2013 , 2014 , 2015 ) approach , we then empirically validated with updated real data with fertility ,
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