Journal on Policy and Complex Systems - Fall 2015 , Volume 2 , Number 2
The Freedom of Constraint : A Multilevel Simulation Model of Politics , Fertility and Economic Development
Zining Yang
Division of Politics and Economics , Claremont Graduate University , Claremont , CA ; Tom & Vi Zapara School of Business , La Sierra University , Riverside , CA
Email : { zining . yang }@ cgu . edu
Abstract Government policy choices impact economic , fertility , and political decisions across generations , which can dramatically affect a country ’ s development path . Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling with game theory approaches in a complex adaptive system , we formalize a multilevel simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development ( POFED ) to understand the relationship between political , economic , and demographic change over time . We first validate the original system dynamics model with the latest data and updated political capacity measurement . Then we fuse these endogenous attributes with noncooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions . Finally , we connect the macro and micro levels by merging system dynamics and agent-based components . This work explains that a microlevel human agency can act , react , and interact , thus driving macrolevel dynamics , as well as how macro structures provide political , social , and economic environments that constrain or incentivize microlevel human behavior . The simulation result is compared against real-world data , suggesting policy implications for society to achieve development goals .
Keywords : complex adaptive systems , economic development , political capacity , demographic change , agent-based model , system dynamics , game theory
3 doi : 10.18278 / jpcs . 2.2.2