Journal on Policy and Complex Systems
dynamics behavior and evolutionary through iterations contributes to each individual and societal current states .
As an initial effort at a scale-integrated framework , the design of three modules frees me to focus on the coupling of structure and agency before enriching subcomponent process detail . Thus , agents simultaneously co-evolve as strategy pair outcomes cooperation – cooperation , defection – cooperation , or defection – defection at t to increase y at t + 1 , thus driving both positive and negative h , b , and y feedback process through t + n iterations . These shape A i variables allow adaptation to a changing environment by summing y i
, b i , and h i values . Feedback into subsequent A ij game selection networks and strategy choice yields a complex adaptive system representation across multiple scales . The model is instantiated in NetLogo ( Wilensky , 1999 ); Figure 1 shows the model interface .
Figure 1 . NetLogo Model Interface .
6 . Results
In order to make generalizable inferences , we conducted a quasi-global sensitivity analysis on both input and initial condition parameters , for over 17,000 runs across 240 time steps . The detailed result is shown in Appendix A . With income as a dependent variable , we first run the baseline model from POFED theory with only macro-level variables . The result confirms POFED theory that instability negatively impacts the wealth level with technology having a positive influence . About 20 % of the variance is explained by the aggregated fertility rate , human capital , political instability , political capacity , population , time , and technology . Then , we include microlevel variables that reflect the impact of evolutionary games . To start with , only the number of socio-economic transactions is added . With other variables having the same sign and level of significance , this new explanatory variable is positive and highly significant . Compared to the baseline model , this model contributes to explanatory power at a limited level by approximately 2.6 %.
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