Annual Predictions
WHAT ’ S OVER THE HORIZON ?
Industry report reveals that Brexit ‘ Armageddon ’ not yet a reality for installers . Despite fears amongst some economists and politicians that voting to leave the EU would send the economy into a tailspin , a recent report has shown that installers are overwhelmingly positive going forward .
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THE ANNUAL INSTALLER INDUSTRY Report by the Consumer Protection Association ( CPA ) has found that , in the immediate future , installers are not seeing a slowdown in consumer spending since ‘ Brexit ’.
The CPA commissioned independent market research company , Insight Data , to carry out the survey , which asked more than 12,000 installers a series of questions about their business performance and expectations for the industry .
When asked if they had noticed that Brexit has affected consumer spending so far this year 79 % of installers said no , compared to 21 % who said yes .
However , when asked about their expectations for the glass and glazing industry , installers were less upbeat . 41 % of installers expect growth across the industry . 41 % say it will stay the same and 14 % say it will decrease .
Also , only 34 % of installers expect consumer spending to increase in 2017 . 45 % say it will stay the same and 17 % say it will decrease – suggesting that in the long-term consumer spending may be hit .
When polled about how business performance in 2016 compared to 2015 , 34 % said profit margins had increased , with 55 % saying they had stayed the same and 10 % saying they had decreased .
Interestingly , despite the fact that the installers polled expect consumer spending to slow down in 2017 , when they were asked
about their business expectations for 2017 , 72 % said they expect to see sales increase , compared to just 3 % who said they expected to see them decrease .
This points to an overriding optimism amongst the industry that despite the contradiction shows that the tumultuous political environment has yet to seriously impact the industry .
On the report , which is the CPA ’ s fourth , Jeremy Brett , Director , comments : “ The industry appears to be holding up and this report confirms that there is lots of work out there and consumer spending is holding up .”
Plenty of Reasons for Optimism
Ian Anfield , MD for Hudson Contract , comments on his predictions for industry in 2017 :
»»“ THERE ’ S NO ESCAPING THE FACT that Brexit will dominate the news and political agenda in 2017 and will have a massive impact on UK construction . This is primarily because we rely so heavily on EU labour to man our construction sites . Possible trade tariffs and US protectionism could shake up the materials markets in 2017 , as well as the weakening of the pound increasing the cost of imported goods .
“ Government policy around planning , the funding of infrastructure enhancements around new residential developments , social housing schemes , building on green belts , and penalties for land banking by the major house builders will have far more impact on house building outside the M25 than Brexit . The arm wrestle between the major house builders and the Government will continue into 2017 , but let ’ s hope that smaller developers are not forgotten .
“ The London property bubble did not burst in 2016 , but it definitely lost a bit of air . 2017 could see the pressure continue to fall . However , instability in other European nations triggered by elections in France , Germany and Italy , and the fact that foreign investors now get more for their money , could soon see London return to bursting point in the next 12 months .
“ 2017 will be dominated by discussion about when all this will bite , and potentially , there could be a big name casualty if investors lose confidence in the UK market .
“ There is already talk of skills shortages – downgraded from a skills crisis . My prediction is that whichever language you use , for 2017 we may see inflation in pay rates , but building schemes will not be shelved due to a lack of labour . The rates commanded by self-employed tradesmen have increased 12 % in the last 3 years , so
a further 3 % increase in 2017 would be a sensible forecast .
“ There are some potential dark clouds on the horizon , which hopefully will pass us all by . But when all said and done there are still plenty of reasons for builders , engineers , surveyors and architects to be optimistic about 2017 .”
www . hudsoncontract . co . uk
30 » JAN 2017 » CLEARVIEW-UK . COM