Briefing Papers Number 22, September 2013 | Page 9

Figure 6  2011 Somalia Consolidated Appeal and Selected Early Warnings
1,200 –

Substantial assistqnce and
large-scale contingency
planning needed

1,000 –

Famine declared
Famine possible
if April-June
rains fail

$ millions

Poor April-June rains are
800 – possible and would result

Worst-case
scenario is being
realized

in an extreme crisis

600 –
400 –
200 –
0–
0

01

2
ec

D

1

J

1

01

01

2
an

F

2
eb

1

M

1

A

2
pr

1

2
ay

M

1

01

01

01

01

2
ar

2
un

J

I Appeal level

J

1

01

2
ul

1

01

A

2
ug

1

01

2
ep

S

1

01

O

2
ct

1

N

1

01

01

2
ov

D

2
ec

1

01

2
an

J

I Cumulative funding

Source: OCHA Financial Tracking Services (FTS), FEWSNET, Chatham House analysis.

The importance of not only improving humanitarian
response, but also strengthening community resilience in
the face of extremely difficult environmental conditions,
cannot be overstated. It is imperative to develop better ways
of coping with high food prices, limited availability, malnutrition, and loss of assets, particularly livestock. It is far more
cost-effective—and obviously far more effective in preventing
human suffering and death—to build social protection programs and agricultural and economic systems that are sustainable in the long run than it is to fly in emergency rations.
Responding