Arctic Yearbook 2014 - Page 439

Arctic Yearbook 2014 439 likelihood of its outbreak. This argumentation can be illustrated and summarised in the following general causal diagram: Capable Preventive Action right timed preventive action by right preventive actor Independent Variable Reduction of Potential Cause of Armed Conflict Conflict Prevention direct/structural at least one Causal Mechanism Dependent Variable Figure 4: Causal Diagram of Conflict Prevention. In other words, in order to analyze and understand the conflict preventive effects of preventive actions, it is first of all necessary to identify the causal mechanism which links these actions to the reduction of a certain cause or even numerous causes of armed conflict. How this general approach of conflict prevention translates to the specific effects of CSBMs as a structural tool of conflict prevention shall be discussed in the subsequent section of this article. Fearon’s Rationalist Explanations for War The issue of ‘uncertainty’, regarding other nation’s military capabilities presents one of the root causes of armed conflict in the international system and is also subject to the bargaining theories of war, one of the most prominent in the field of peace and conflict research (e.g. Levy & Thompson 2010: 68; Mitzen & Schweller 2011: 12). As many scholars in the field argue: war from a rational perspective is too risky [