Briefing Papers Number 22, September 2013 | Page 5

to begin to reverse decades of neglect of agricultural
Figure 3  Percent Change in National Poverty Rate
development.

Resulting from a 1 Percent Increase in Total
Economic growth that does not include agriculture

GDP Growth Rate
as a leading sector often fails to help hungry and poor
Uganda
people. For example, Tanzania’s economy has been
growing steadily over the past 10 years—by an average
Tanzania
of 6.9 percent a year. Five sectors were the source of
almost 60 percent of Tanzania’s economic growth
Rwanda
between 2008 and 2012: communications, banking
and financial services, retail trade, construction, and
Nigeria
manufacturing. Agriculture also contributed to Tanzania’s economic growth—this was a given because
Kenya
it’s a significant share of GDP, about 25 percent—but
in the same 2008-2012 time frame, agriculture grew
Ghana
more slowly than the economy as a whole.
The five leading growth sectors are concentrated
Ethiopia
in urban areas, but about 80 percent of Tanzania’s
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poor people live in rural areas.15 This urban focus
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
explains why year after year of consistent economic
I Nonagriculture-led growth I Agriculture-led growth I Baseline growth
growth has not significantly lowered Tanzania’s povSource: IFPRI based on results reported in the country case studies.
erty rate. Tanzania’s recent economic trends support
the argument that slow agricultural growth in Africa
is an obstacle—the fact that most poor people are dependent growth of the human population. The projected surge to 9 bilon an underperforming sector is part of the explanation for lion people by 2050,17 accompanied by only slight increases
continued high rates of hun